Interview with Lucile M. (Lucy) Jones

Abstract

This ten-session oral history with seismologist Dr. Lucile (Lucy) Jones—visiting research associate at Caltech, former head of the Pasadena office of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and founder of the Lucy Jones Center for Science and Society—offers an in-depth look at how a life in science became a mission to help build a more informed and resilient society. Widely recognized for her pioneering work in seismic risk analysis and public safety and for her ability to communicate fluently about both to diverse audiences, Jones has long been known to the public as “the earthquake lady,” a distinction that, as she explains, she often views with distinctly mixed feelings. Sessions 1–3 explore Jones’ Southern California upbringing, including her early love of mathematics, science, and classical music, and her unorthodox academic path—majoring in Chinese language and literature at Brown University and then earning a PhD in geophysics at MIT under the guidance of future Crafoord laureate P. Molnar. With this background she became one of the first Western researchers to conduct earthquake studies in China after the normalization of U.S.-China relations in the late 1970s. She recalls her work with Chinese seismologists during a time of guarded liberalization, the impact of catastrophic quakes on Chinese society, the pitfalls of earthquake forecasting efforts, and her newfound awareness, arising out of these experiences, that “earthquake prediction was not just a scientific problem, but a human and a social one.” Sessions 4–6 delve into her research on earthquake probabilities, particularly her use of statistical modeling to analyze foreshocks and aftershocks during California’s 1987–1999 earthquake sequence. She discusses her collaborations with colleagues at the USGS and Caltech seismological laboratory, major advances and debates in seismology during this era, and her own growing prominence as both earthquake “explainer” and seismic safety advocate, and the challenges and opportunities it created, both personally and professionally. She also recounts joint research with her husband and fellow seismologist, Egill Hauksson, on seismic activity along the southern San Andreas and adjacent faults. These experiences culminated in her authorship of “Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country,” a guide to seismic awareness in California. Sessions 7–9 cover Jones’ tenure as scientist-in-charge of the Pasadena USGS and her move into public policy, working with government agencies at all levels to develop and promote hazard mitigation strategies. A highlight is her conception of the ShakeOut earthquake drill, now a global event. She talks in detail about her year as seismic safety advisor to the mayor of Los Angeles, which led to the Resilience by Design report—a comprehensive blueprint for bolstering the city’s ability to withstand a catastrophic quake—and about her decision to establish the Lucy Jones Center, reflecting her commitment to “science activation,” with the climate crisis as a key focus. A recurring theme is the potential tension between scientific integrity and public advocacy, and the challenges of working within and across both worlds. In Session 10, Jones discusses her experience researching and writing her book The Big Ones, a popular science treatment of how societies throughout history have responded to natural disasters, the lessons they offer for meeting similar challenges today—and the lessons she herself learned through her explorations of how humanity has dealt, or failed to deal, with such events over two millennia.